Quiet, lovely light just before the county lockdown. So easy to be distracted.

Revised Commute

March 12: I’ve been riding from my home office to… my home office, after completing my tasks each day. Both for enjoyment of the outdoor activity but also to give each workday some closure.

Wait out the gridlock.
Alternate route.

Shelter Order, Day 17

Bicycling today.


Trying not to see the usual things, and expecting such rides to be forbidden soon anyway. They are the things.

~1 min read

Hard Shutdown Now

The following is the text of a letter that I’ve been sharing with my fellow residents in Petaluma and greater Sonoma County, California.

We Need a Hard Shutdown - ❤️ - Not Just “Shelter in Place”

It looks obvious from gazing out the window here that “Shelter in Place” is grand theatre but it will have limited impact on actually STOPPING THE DISEASE – the toy stores, head shops, icecream parlors, etc are still open here in Petaluma. Crowds are still collecting around restaurant takeout windows, food trucks, and I can’t imagine Costco.

There’s an old saw that is repeated by doctors: “if you want a public health policy to fail, the most-effective way is to make it optional.”

We need a national shutdown, immediately. It needs to be a hard lockdown. All the arguments we hear today from policymakers and media are not about STOPPING THE ILLNESS. The truth is that even from an economic perspective a hard shutdown will check all the Make America Great boxes – countries that can crush this illness fastest will have tremendous advantage for years and their markets will thrive. Those that lose time on choosing between different unproductive strategies will stumble and tumble.

Every hour wasted on arguments costs thousands of lives. Acting Sunday versus Friday could easily impact a million lives or more. That’s 8000+ people per hour.

I’ve done calculations just for Petaluma and unless the disease is stopped we could lose well over 1,000 people. Maybe a lot over. Friends, neighbors.

Everyone stay put at home. Avoid everything, even the grocery store. It’s the safest course of action for you personally regardless of whether “leaders” act or not. And send out whatever you can you get this message heard – not just by our friends who probably agree with us, but by everyone.

#hardshutdownnow #fiveweekshutdown – just hashtags I’m making up, more media-savvy people than me can do better. Try #endcoronavirus

❤️ k

daily cases
Daily Cases in Sonoma County, Actual vs Predicted

Staying Safe: Simple Math

How can I avoid being infected by the current pandemic? What’s my risk? How safe is “safe”? What are realistic safety margins? Let’s find out! It’s not difficult with a little focused thought.

The internet today is full of confusing information, but on this page you can get the math yourself to decide what’s best for you, the people you care about, and to keep yourselves safe.


  • The epidemic is big, but your personal decisions about your safety can give you control. Don’t be a statistic.
  • The best way to win is to avoid losing.
  • “Common Sense” and intuitions will be very wrong for this uncommon situation.
  • Early choices have big benefits. Small risks over time can become big risks, so keep them all small.
  • Things will be changing rapidly day-to-day in a couple of weeks, even if it’s not immediately obvious: there are delays between infection and illness.
  • Testing is only a small part of the solution.
  • Friends and family matter.
  • You can do this.
12 min read